Sudbury employment increased by 1.7 per cent last year, hitting 86,925 employed people, bringing it in just below a pre-pandemic peak of 87,300 in 2019.
The Conference Board of Canada’s latest economic forecast predicts a “fractional” 0.3-per-cent employment gain in 2024, and then a slightly stronger 1.2-per-cent jump in 2025.
By then, both employment and GDP are forecast to surpass the city’s pre-pandemic peak.
Paralleling the rising costs of property, employment in finance, insurance and real estate increased by 26.7 per cent last year, following two years of industry losses. This sector is expected to rise by another 2.8 per cent this year before dropping by 6.7 per cent next year.
Although various metrics point to local growth, including Greater Sudbury marking its largest-ever (since its 2001 amalgamation) annual population growth last year, the
Conference Board of Canada’s report cautions that falling nickel prices might threaten local prospects.
Prices peaked in March 2022 and were roughly half that in March 2024.
“Worries about the near-term prospects for electric cars and their nickel-consuming batteries, along with rising Indonesian supply, has pummelled nickel prices,” according to the
forecast.
Greater Sudbury’s GDP increased by 0.1 per cent in 2023, which is down from a 2.6-per-cent gain in 2022. The forecast calls for a 0.9-per-cent GDP jump this year, followed by
increases of around two per cent for the subsequent few years.
Meanwhile, the forecast makes note of the city’s well-established need for more housing, noting that although the average residential resale price fell by three per cent last year,
this followed three straight double-digit annual increases.
“Despite evident residential demand, Sudbury housing starts have fallen for two straight years from a nine-year high of 434 units in 2021,” according to the report.
“Last year’s 268 units were well below Sudbury’s 20-year starts average of 380 units. The dip likely reflects the high interest rates builders face to finance projects, as well as their
preoccupation with high volumes of units under construction.”
It’s anticipated that falling interest rates and ongoing population growth will result in more than 300 residential unit-starts this year, which is a level the city is anticipated to maintain
for at least a few years.
“The city’s existing housing market is in a balanced state,” according to the report. “This has prevailed despite a decline in listings because sales have levelled off. Transactions
have fallen from high pandemic-era volumes but are hovering near their 20-year average.”
Some other highlights in the annual report include:
Health-care employment rose by 9.5 per cent in 2022 and three per cent in 2023, further establishing Sudbury’s role as a regional services hub. After reaching a record high of
14,400, employment in this sector will ease by 1.4 per cent this year.
Immigration has been on a steep rise, with net international immigration hitting almost 2,400 people in 2022 and 2,000 people in 2023, which is vastly greater than the 2000-21
annual average of approximately 330 newcomers.
Following steep increases in retail sales in 2021 (9.7 per cent) and 2022 (11.7 per cent), retail sales decreased by 0.8 per cent in 2023. Local sales are expected to bounce back
by 1.7 per cent his year and 2.9 per cent in 2025.
Greater Sudbury’s consumer price index jumped by 6.8 per cent in 2022 and a further 3.8 per cent in 2023. “The worst of these price increases seems over,” according to the
report, which anticipates a 2.8-per-cent increase this year and 2.1-per-cent increase in 2025.
